Laurent BERVAS (US)

Make purchases, not war

Back from China today, I return with beautiful memories and above all the strong conviction that we’re entering a new era. As “young” business leaders, we have an important role to play. We also have a responsibility.

“J’ai vu finir le monde ancien” (*) is the title of a book that describes the upheaval in New York in 2001 while the twin towers were collapsing.

Maybe it’s presumptuous, but I feel that we’re wrong about the date. Personally, I saw the end of “the world of yesterday” one night in 1989 when an old dam that we believed eternal fell.

On that night, waves coming from the East invaded the lighted stores of Berlin. We realized that on the other side of the wall, the “barbarians” were like us, they were dreaming of televisions, automobiles, washing machines … Maybe this was surprising for some, but it’s human.

On that night, waves coming from the East invaded the lighted stores of Berlin. We realized that on the other side of the wall, the “barbarians” were like us, they were dreaming of televisions, automobiles, washing machines … Maybe this was surprising for some, but it’s human.

On that night, the old world shook. “The Cold War no longer had a reason for being. Dick Cheney, Defense Secretary, announced a budget cut-back of 180 billion dollars on defense spending.” (**) Since then, old leaders have built new walls, invented new barbarians, new markets for arms trade. According to what they say on TV, we have to protect ourselves from Islamic terrorists …

The industry of war is coming to an end.

We talk a lot about America, but Chirac is also making a huge mistake when he advocates the end of the arms embargo in China. He is squandering the credit he received from his positions on Israel and the war in Iraq.

While traveling in Morocco and China, it’s easy to see that the waves of change are growing. Like the former East German dreamed of televisions, today Moroccans and Chinese are today dreaming of mobile telephones and flat-screen TV.

In 25 years, the 20-euro bill has become the passport of more than 550 million European consumers.

“Make purchases, not war” should perhaps be the slogan of this century.

• (*) Alexandre Adler – “J’ai vu finir le monde ancien” – Grasset
• (**) François Missen – Le réseau Carlyle - Flammarion

Old Europe - New Worlds

I’m about to board the airplane after a 15-day voyage in China.
Like my trip to Casablanca a few months ago, it was a trip of total immersion and strong sensations. In China, I found much of what I felt in Morocco: energy, movement and a youth that’s waking up to the world.

I said somewhere that many of the Chinese nationals I encountered were happy. Even if this is surprising to some, I hold to this positive impression. The train of progress moves almost a billion voyagers every day. There are dramas and there are deaths and I deplore this. But whether they’re rich or poor, these people see the situation getting better every day. Even those who are not part of the progress think that their children will have a better life.

There’s a downside and a price to pay for this growth. It’s not the absence of democracy that worries me. Democracy is on its way.
For me, the major challenge in China for the coming years is pollution.

The ecological drama is flagrant. Major cities in China are among the most polluted in the world. Industrial zones are frightening for some. Westerners can share some of our experience and know-how to help with this.

It will be up to the young generation around the world to do the cleaning up – a good chance to join hands and get this earth turning in the right direction…

PS People are often reproaching me for being too idealistic, and it’s probably true in part. But as my grandmother said, “smile at life and it will smile back.”

Asia waves

For many Europeans, China is mysterious, and that's scary. We remain jumpy and afraid to act, as though a tidal wave were going to submerge us …

I saw the waves. They were the waves of consumers crossing commercial streets in Beijing and Shanghai. They dream about the West. They buy L’Oreal, Gucci, McDonald’s, Nokia ... In the end, they're just like us, not better or worse. They're consumers too.

Europe is aging; our social model is in crisis. America is at war, a war of another time. America doubts. Europe has aged a bit, we're a little tired, and we are looking enviously at our young neighbor to the east.

I worry that our economic and political leaders will one day make scapegoats of them. Surely, China’s success is destabilizing our economies, but this is just accelerating a predicted decline.
We are going to have some difficult times in Europe. We have to prepare for it and understand that it’s useless to be afraid. Fear is bad adviser.

Our society will change dramatically. This will be our opportunity to rebuild on new foundations, a new kind of Renaissance.

But for that to happen, we need to understand.
Go to the China Sea, listen to the sound of the waves …

China's growth

A very interesting post from Loic Le Meur blogging at the "World Economic Forum" in Beijing.

"China's growth is a tougher event than anything ..."

Travel to China (Part I)

M. Chen and I are working on a methodology for learning Chinese. But before beginning, M. Chen wanted to share some advice for those who might find themselves in China.

• Don’t forget to offer small housewarming gifts. Price is not important, but the act is. The Chinese appreciate foreign products.

• Often, Chinese people show up without an appointment. For foreigners, it’s best to make an appointment, but a Chinese host will do his best to be welcoming even without advance notice.

• Be aware that the Chinese are generally on time for appointments.

• Tea is always offered to guests. Even in summer, you’ll be offered a hot tea when you arrive.

• The Chinese like talking about the weather before beginning the real discussion.

More advice to come …

Exporting Chinese Mobiles

A short note just sent to me by M. Chen:

“Over the past 7 months, China has exported 73 410 000 phones with a total value of $7.15 million.

That is a 104.9% increase in value and a 55.9% increase in the number of telephones compared with the same period during the previous year.

The overwhelming majority of mobile phones have parts that have been made in China.

The number of phones that are 100% Chinese-made is only 4% of the market, or 2 800 000 telephones.

(Source: Agence Xinghua 30/8/2004)

My feeling is that the arrival of entirely Chinese-made phones in Europe is just around the corner.

New PC made in China

The PC was born in 1981 in the USA, more than 20 years ago. At the time, it used Intel chips and software by Microsoft.

In 2004, the WinTel model (Windows + Intel) is still the standard.

This quasi-monopoly is maintained with an iron fist. Microsoft uses its influence to systematically eliminate competitors by buying or killing them.

I’ll cite just two examples, though the roads in America are strewn with corpses.

Web TV allowed the use of the Internet on TV. Microsoft bought it to bury the project and add to its portfolio of patents.

Netscape promised to become the new office. This gave way to a notorious battle: Internet Explorer was distributed for free, for the good (or to the detriment) of everyone. Netscape didn’t make it, and a new competitor was eliminated.

The American government has abandoned its lawsuit citing abuse of power: the monopoly isn’t threatened.

The domestic PC needs to evolve. They are too expensive, too complicated. The new versions of Windows won’t change that.

But if the new PC is not American, where will it come from?

As for me, I’d bet on China. It’s already the leader in the future of mobile phones.

The following articles contain evidence for this hunch …